![]() “My dad used to say, ‘Don’t compare me to the Almighty, Joey. “Every election’s a choice,” he said recently. Biden, for his part, is making this point explicitly. The Supreme Court, dominated by Republican appointees, issued an unpopular decision on abortion, and Trump, unlike most defeated presidents, continues to receive a large amount of attention.Īs a result, this year’s election may feel less like a referendum on the current president and more like a choice between two parties. Similarly, Nate noted that the polls in the 2018 midterms were fairly accurate.įinally, as Nate points out, the 2022 campaign does have two dynamics that may make it different from a normal midterm and that may help Democrats. Douglas Rivers, the chief scientist of the polling firm YouGov, told me that he thought this was the case and that there is something particular about Trump that complicates polling. There is also some uncertainty about whether the problem is as big when Trump is not on the ballot - and he is obviously not running for office this year. This inconsistency makes the problem harder to fix because pollsters can’t simply boost the Republican share everywhere. In some states - such as Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania - the final polls have been pretty accurate lately. The pattern has not been uniform across the country, for instance. There are still some big mysteries about the polls’ recent tendency to underestimate Republican support. The unavoidable reality is that polling is both an art and a science, requiring hard judgments about which kinds of people are more or less likely to respond to a survey and more or less likely to vote in the fall. It’s even possible that pollsters are understating Democratic support this year by searching too hard for Republican voters in an effort to avoid repeating recent mistakes. Nate is also careful to acknowledge what he doesn’t know, and he emphasizes that the polls may not be wrong this year in the same way that they were wrong in 2020. That’s good news for Trump.”) Or is 2022 different? One example was in June 2016, when he wrote: “There are more white voters than people think. He helps oversee Times polls and has a record of noticing trends before many others do. It’s available to Times subscribers, and Nate is one of the sharpest political analysts working today. (If you’re fascinated by politics, I encourage you to sign up. Nate goes into more depth in one of the first editions of a newsletter that he will be writing a couple of times a week for the rest of the midterm campaign. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, calls it “a warning sign” - for both the Democratic Party and for the polls. Recent polls suggest that Democrats are favored to keep control of the Senate narrowly, while losing control of the House, also narrowly. This possibility offers reason to wonder whether Democrats are really doing as well in the midterm elections as the conventional wisdom holds. (I explained the problem in more depth in a 2020 article.) #Scott kenan the weather up here how toIf that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem. One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey. In each of these states - and some others - pollsters failed to reach a representative sample of voters. In Ohio, the polls pointed to a tight race instead, Trump won it easily. The polls also showed Biden running comfortably ahead in Wisconsin, yet he won it by less than a percentage point. The polls reported that Biden had a small lead in North Carolina, but he lost the state to Donald Trump. The final polls in the 2020 presidential election overstated Joe Biden’s strength, especially in a handful of states. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |